Public Reports Archive

Complimentary commercial risk intelligence releases

AAL publishes selected public releases from the China Commercial Intelligence Brief — practitioner-level analysis, twice a month, on the counterparty and regulatory risk that standard coverage misses. These public issues are free. Full paid subscriber access, and the free Weekly Digest, are available through Substack.

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Latest Public Release

China Commercial Intelligence Brief — Special Edition | 30 June 2026

Complimentary Public Edition — Full PDF

Beyond the First Island Chain: China’s Expanding Indo-Pacific Security Footprint and the Commercial Implications

This Special Edition examines China’s expanding security presence beyond the First Island Chain and the commercial implications for multinational corporations, infrastructure investors, compliance professionals and supply chain operators with Asia-Pacific exposure.

Drawing on the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s June 2026 report, Pressure Points Part 3: China in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the report assesses how naval deployments, coast guard activity, maritime militia operations, policing cooperation, private security, research vessels and infrastructure investment are reshaping commercial risk across the Indo-Pacific.

IssueSpecial Edition | 30 June 2026

FormatPDF report

AudienceSenior decision-makers, compliance teams and supply-chain operators

StatusComplimentary public edition

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China Commercial Intelligence Brief — Archive

All issues — paid subscriber access via Substack

Regular CCIB issues are available through Substack. Selected public editions are made available here as complimentary PDF downloads.

Issue 9 — 25 August 2026 — Paid

The Receivable Becomes a Credit Decision: A Counterparty Payment-Risk Framework for SOE and Government-Linked Payers

A government-linked receivable read as a credit decision taken at the point of sale, not an administrative certainty to be collected later. Issue 9 maps sector-by-sector exposure to SOE, government and LGFV/PPP payment cycles; sets out precisely what the 2025 reforms — State Council Order No. 802 and the Private Economy Promotion Law — strengthened for creditors, and what they did not; and converts both into a working framework: a receivables-ageing matrix read against payer type, a red-flag register and a pre-contract-to-monitoring transaction checklist. Includes a statutory scope note for offshore and foreign creditors, whose eligibility for the new protections is not automatic.

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Issue 8 — 11 August 2026 — Paid

The Exit Becomes a Deal Term: Decree 841 and the New Transaction Logic of Exit and Entry Control

State Council Decree No. 841 — the nineteen-article Regulations on Exit and Entry Administration, effective 15 September 2026 — read for what changes in the transaction room, not what the articles say. Issue 8 sets out the personnel screen that descends from entity to named individual and captures derivative countermeasure exposure under Article 5, the Article 4 export-control exit ground that makes key-person departure a live closing contingency, the remote-execution and sequencing mechanics that de-risk constrained mobility mid-deal, and a priority-sector risk matrix covering semiconductors, AI, advanced manufacturing and dual-use.

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Issue 7 — 28 July 2026 — Paid

Continuity by Other Means: The Section 301 Tariff Rebuild, Strategic-Mineral Enforcement, and China Vanke’s Managed Descent

The 24 July tariff transition, read as substitution rather than rupture: the Section 122 surcharge lapsed and a 12.5% Section 301 forced-labour duty on China-origin goods replaced it the same moment. Issue 7 sets out the landed-cost mechanics and a Q3–Q4 checklist, the Announcement No. 26 strategic-mineral enforcement playbook including the foreign-audit trap, and China Vanke’s completed 2026 bond extensions and what they mean for counterparties.

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Issue 6 — 8 July 2026 — Paid

The Two-Track Capital Strategy: Decree 837, the Foreign Investment Action Plan, and the New Logic of China’s Capital Account

Beijing’s new outbound investment framework and 15-measure inbound Action Plan show a selectively permeable capital-account strategy: attracting capital and know-how in while tightening lifecycle control over Chinese-origin technology, data, services and strategic assets moving out.

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Issue 5 — 24 June 2026 — Paid

China’s New Economic Security Architecture: State Council Decrees 834 & 835

Compliance obligations, enforcement triggers, and corporate action arising from China’s new economic security legislative framework. Essential reading for any business with PRC operational or counterparty exposure.

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Issue 4 — 9 June 2026 — Complimentary PDF

The Compliance Trifecta: Trade Secrets, Forced Labour Tariffs, and Rare Earth Enforcement

This public issue examines three converging regulatory shifts affecting businesses operating with or within China: SAMR trade secret provisions, USTR Section 301 forced-labour tariff exposure, and MIIT rare earth enforcement.

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Issue 3 — 31 May 2026 — Paid

China Corporate Opacity: Red Flags in Counterparty DD

PRC registries are accurate for what they record — and silent on what matters. Six red flags, a verification framework, and the search your counterparty didn’t plan for.

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Issue 2 — 31 May 2026 — Paid

Dual-Use Export Landscape Post-BIS Rule Changes

The October 2022 and 2023 BIS rules rewrote the technology export map. FDPR jurisdiction now reaches non-US products. PE portfolios with China tech exposure may already be non-compliant.

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Issue 1 — 31 May 2026 — Paid

Military-Civil Fusion & the Western PE Blind Spot

China’s MCF doctrine is codified law — not espionage. Every Chinese entity in a covered sector can be directed to serve the state. Most PE due diligence frameworks were not built to detect it.

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Weekly Digest — Free Publication

Recent Weekly Digest issues — free for all subscribers

The Weekly Digest is free to all subscribers and covers China-linked commercial intelligence, regulatory developments and transaction-risk issues relevant to decision-makers with PRC exposure.

Weekly Digest — 6 September 2026 — Free

Compliance Becomes the Chokepoint: China's Counter-Sanctions Regime Begins Rewiring Critical-Mineral Due Diligence

On 5 August MOFCOM placed the Responsible Business Alliance on China's countermeasure list under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law; by early September the second-order effect had surfaced. Reuters reports a handful of Chinese rare-earth suppliers now declining shipments to US customers, wary of Chinese repercussions for complying with the RBA's Responsible Minerals Initiative due-diligence framework. WD-15 reads the collision: a Western compliance requirement has itself become a source of Chinese compliance exposure, and a valid export licence is becoming necessary but no longer sufficient. With the Responsible Minerals Initiative pausing new RMAP assessments in China and rare-earth access already on the US planning agenda ahead of the expected 24 September Washington summit, the digest frames supplier self-deterrence as a dependency harder to engineer around than a quota. It also covers Beijing's new non-binding guidelines on how Chinese automakers compete abroad and the nationwide cross-border cash-pooling regime effective 14 September.

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Weekly Digest — 30 August 2026 — Free

The Committee of Two: China's Military Purge Reaches the Top as Washington and Beijing Build Leverage for the September Summit

Beijing's leadership purge has reached its highest military body: the Central Military Commission's operational tier is now reduced to Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Chairman Zhang Shengmin. WD-14 reads the vacancy against succession and command-authority questions for counterparties tracking PLA-linked procurement and defence-adjacent supply chains. In parallel, Washington and Beijing are each assembling tariff, sanctions and trade-leverage positions ahead of the planned September Xi-Trump summit, raising the near-term probability of pre-summit brinkmanship before any deal is reached. The digest sets out what both tracks mean for exposure timing and counterparty risk into Q4.

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Weekly Digest — 23 August 2026 — Free

The Regulator Wants the File, Beijing Says No — the JD.com–CECONOMY FSR Blocking Order

China’s Ministry of Justice has identified certain cross-border investigative practices used in the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation probe into JD.com’s proposed CECONOMY acquisition as an improper extraterritorial measure. WD-13 examines the resulting compliance collision: Chinese entities and banks may face legal constraints on producing information sought by Brussels, turning regulatory cooperation, financing disclosure and information-production risk into live transaction and closing issues for China-linked EU deals.

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Weekly Digest — 16 August 2026 — Free

China’s External Engine, Domestic Brake

China’s passenger-vehicle market split in two directions in July: domestic sales fell 21.1% on a tenth straight monthly decline while exports rose 88.2%, the divergence widest in new-energy vehicles. WD-12 reads the PBOC’s Q2 report naming the “strong supply, weak demand” mismatch — and declining to answer it with rate or RRR cuts — as confirmation that Beijing will accommodate the imbalance rather than close it, pushing surplus capacity and price competition into third markets. It also flags CAC’s 12 August guidance that publicly available personal data is not an unrestricted commercial asset under PIPL Article 27.

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Weekly Digest — 9 August 2026 — Free

The Exit, Administered: China Codifies Departure and Entry Control

On 31 July China’s State Council issued the Regulations on Exit and Entry Administration (Decree No. 841), effective 15 September 2026 — a nineteen-article implementing rule under the 2012 law, not a new border regime. WD-11 reads the three shifts that carry commercial weight: immigration control now wired to China’s countermeasure and entity-list system, exit restrictions extended to export-control and technology conduct that make key-person departure a live transaction variable, and a new filing regime bringing mobility intermediaries under supervision.

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Weekly Digest — 2 August 2026 — Free

Policy Execution Takes Priority as July Activity Moderates

July’s official PMIs eased below 50 — manufacturing 49.2, composite 49.3 — but the composition mattered more than the headline: equipment and high-tech manufacturing kept expanding while consumer-goods and energy-intensive industries softened. WD-10 reads the sectoral divergence, the input-to-output pass-through pressure on margins, and the 30 July Political Bureau meeting’s turn to faster fiscal execution, targeted incremental support and the resolution of payment arrears owed to enterprises.

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Weekly Digest — 26 July 2026 — Free

Replacement, Not Rupture — Washington Rebuilds the Tariff Wall as Beijing Holds Fire

The 24 July tariff transition resolved as a substitution rather than a rupture: the Section 122 global surcharge lapsed at its statutory limit and USTR’s Section 301 forced-labour action replaced it the same moment, leaving China-origin goods on an additional 12.5% duty. WD-09 reads the outcome — Beijing’s measured response, the advancing US–China Board of Trade, and where the November 2025 truce is now most exposed.

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Weekly Digest — 19 July 2026 — Free

External Trade Strength, Domestic Demand Moderation

China’s first-half goods trade reached a record RMB 25.47 trillion while second-quarter growth moderated to 4.3%. WD-08 assesses the divergence between external trade strength and softer domestic investment conditions, the 24 July US tariff transition, new helium export-control exposure and China Vanke’s first-half loss warning.

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Weekly Digest — 12 July 2026 — Free

The Deadline Stack — Washington’s July Cliffs Meet Beijing’s Enforcement Turn

Washington’s 24 July tariff deadline converges with unresolved Section 301 measures as Beijing moves from announcing strategic-mineral controls to enforcing them, creating immediate pricing, compliance and personnel exposure for companies operating across the US–China trade corridor.

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Weekly Digest — 5 July 2026 — Free

The Truce Holds — But Both Rails Are Being Stress-Tested

The US–China truce enters a decisive week as Section 301 forced-labour duties, entity-list escalation, rare-earth leverage and EU trade-defence pressure stress-test both tariff and regulatory rails.

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Weekly Digest — 28 June 2026 — Free

US–China Rare Earth & Trade Deal: Operational but Contested

The US–China trade and critical minerals framework formalised through the November 2025 trade arrangement, following the Busan meeting, is now in its operational phase. The environment in late June 2026 is considerably more complex than the headline deal implies.

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Weekly Digest — 21 June 2026 — Free

The July 1 Countdown: China’s Outbound Investment Regulation

China’s outbound investment regulatory framework enters a new enforcement phase. What changes on 1 July, what it means for cross-border capital flows, and the compliance steps that cannot wait.

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Weekly Digest — 14 June 2026 — Free

The Compliance Trap Takes Legal Form

State Council Order No. 834 and the new geometry of supply chain risk. The compliance trap is no longer theoretical — it is now codified.

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Weekly Digest — 7 June 2026 — Free

Trade Secrets, Tariffs and Rare Earth Enforcement

China’s new trade secret regime entered force on 1 June, expanding regulatory authority over AI data, algorithms and source code. US–China tariff instability continues as a new Section 301 forced-labour investigation is filed. Rare earth enforcement tightens further up the value chain.

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